According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its January 28 FOMC meeting fell to 22% on Friday from 24% the week before. More importantly, demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong, with the 10-year yield holding steady at 4.15% on Friday after briefly falling below 4% at the end of November. This move indicates a growing risk aversion among traders, which has also contributed to weak demand for bitcoin.
The rise in developed market bond yields has reinforced BlackRock's view that the portfolio ballast provided by traditional diversification vehicles such as long-term US Treasuries has weakened. BlackRock said in a report that the surge in long-term bond yields partly reflected heightened concerns about loose fiscal policy and a deteriorating fiscal outlook. Yields on Japanese 30-year bonds hit a record high earlier this month and have risen by...
Analyst Fawad Razaqzada said gold's move this week would largely depend on US Treasury yields and the dollar. "If bond prices fall further, or yields rise, that could put pressure on low- and zero-yielding assets such as gold," he said. Meanwhile, "if the dollar rebounds this week [a week of data releases and Fed officials talking intensely], then gold could lose some of its appeal." Last week, as the Federal Reserve left wide open for further interest rate cuts next year...
Treasury yields rose to their highest level in more than two months after most of the world's government bond markets fell as investors braced for three US invite tenders and this week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Treasury yields rose by 3 to 6 basis points overall, with medium-term bonds the weakest. The Treasury will issue $58 billion in three-year notes at 1pm New York time, $39 billion in 10-year notes and $22 billion in 30-year notes on Tuesday and Thursday...
Treasury yields fell, giving up some of Thursday's gains on better-than-expected initial jobless claims data. The focus of Friday's US data was September's personal consumption expenditure price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, which was delayed by the longest US government shutdown in history. Yields on Treasury maturities fell 1 basis point to 1.5 basis points in Asian trading, with two-year yields falling 1.2 basis points to 3.518 per cent and 10-year yields fallin...
Market news: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has relaxed a key bank capital rule tied to U.S. Treasuries, proposing changes to the collective loan repayment rate to reduce the required ratio from 9% to 8%. Extending the non-compliance grace period from four quarters to two.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as the U.S. government reopened, although doubts remained over the release of important data. The White House warned yesterday that the October CPI, scheduled for today, may never be released, and the report on first-time jobless claims was delayed. The odds that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts next month rose to 44 percent from 30 percent a week ago as policymakers expressed caution about inflation, CME data showed. A 30-year bond auction is scheduled...
William Marshall and Bill Zu of Goldman Sachs said that the increase in the size of US Treasury auctions in the future is likely to favor shorter-dated Treasuries. They expect nominal two-, three-, five- and seven-year Treasury auctions to continue to increase, while floating rate notes will increase less, and 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasury auctions will remain stable. This trend is expected to start in November 2026. They said: Over time, we expect this to decrease...
US Treasury yields rose on Monday on the back of high corporate bond issuance and a continuation of last week's bearish tone in the Treasury market, when Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell poured cold water on the possibility of further monetary easing this year. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown that began on October 1 this week is likely to be the longest on record, leading to the release of key economic data.
U.S. investor Louis Navellier said in a note that the recent across-the-board decline in U.S. Treasury yields presages a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Navellier expects the Fed to cut rates at its meetings on October 29 and December 10, with the market pricing in a near 97% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 94% chance of another 25 basis point cut in December. (Jin X)